Five-minute forecast a win for solar energy industry

Australian researchers are developing short-term weather forecasts for solar farms to help them precisely predict output as little as five minutes in advance.

The $A1.2 million project, which officially started yesterday, will use data generated by real-time sky cameras, satellite images and statistical modelling to design a world-first, short-term forecasting model to more accurately predict weather conditions from five minutes up to two hours.

Working alongside colleagues from CSIRO, the University of New South Wales and Genex Power, the University of South Australia is focusing on the statistical modelling component.

UniSA Professor of Environmental Mathematics John Boland said inaccurate short-term forecasts relating to wind and solar generation have cost Australia’s renewable energy sector about $5 million in the past decade.

He said precise self-forecasting would also help solar farms with battery storage capabilities predict when best to sell or store their electricity.

“Accurately forecasting the output of grid-connected solar systems is critical to increasing the overall penetration of solar and renewables. This is important for the stability and management of the electrical system as a whole,” Professor Boland said.